Fuel hikes in Nigeria under BAT administration

 

Fuel Hikes in Nigeria Under the BAT Administration: From Subsidy Removal to N1,400+ Per Litre

If you bought fuel in May 2023 and you buy it today, you are not buying the same product economically. The price has changed by over 600%.
Here is how it happened under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu (BAT).

1. The Starting Point: May 29, 2023

At Eagle Square during his inauguration, President Tinubu declared: "The fuel subsidy is gone."

At that time, the official pump price under the Buhari administration was between N185 and N195 per litre. Within 48 hours, NNPC stations adjusted from ~N190 to N540 per litre. Panic buying and long queues followed in Lagos, Abuja and Kano. 50f20429

The government said subsidy was costing over N4 trillion annually and needed to be redirected to infrastructure, education and healthcare.



2. The Twin Shock: Subsidy + FX Reform

The price hike was not just subsidy alone. On June 14, 2023, the Central Bank of Nigeria unified the exchange rate market. Since Nigeria still imported over 69% of its PMS then, a weaker naira meant higher landing cost. 50f2

Result: By late 2023, fuel was N600+ in many states. By late 2024, it crossed N1,000.

3. The N1,000 Era: 2024-2026

- September 2024: NNPC Lagos price rose to N950, up to N1,019 in the Northeast
- October 2024: N998 in Lagos, over N1,000 elsewhere
- June 2, 2026: Minimum price N1,340 per litre vs N238 three years earlier - a 463% increase
- By May 2026, market data put petrol at N1,300 - N1,400 per litre
- September 2026: Following crude price rise above $104/barrel, prices hit N1,395 - N1,450 in Abuja 50f2e7483cd20c6d

http://Legit.ng reports the increase as over 600% from ~N175 to N1,400 in three years. 3cd2

4. Why Prices Did Not Fall Even With Dangote Refinery

The Dangote Refinery started commercial petrol production and was expected to crash prices. But pricing remains linked to crude oil, FX, logistics and refining margins. As of late 2025, only 31% of supply came from local refineries, 69% still imported. 50f2a0c6

In October 2025, President Tinubu also approved a 15% import duty on petrol and diesel to protect local refining. Marketers warned it could push pump price above N1,000. a0c6d459

5. Impact on Nigerians

The policy saved the government trillions but triggered:

- Headline inflation to 15.69% and food inflation 16.09% by April 2026
- Transport fares: e.g. Lagos-Ibadan bus from N2,000 to N6,000
- NLC protest: NLC President Joe Ajaero recently said fuel hike to N1,430 has pushed up transport, rent and food prices and deepened poverty. 

The government argues subsidy removal was necessary for long-term fiscal sustainability and investment. Critics, including PDP, Labour Party and NLC, argued there was no clear social protection plan before removal. cefd

What Next?

Fuel in Nigeria is now fully deregulated. That means global crude prices, naira value, and local refining capacity now determine what you pay at the pump directly. With crude above $100 and the naira still under pressure, analysts warn of further volatility ahead of the 2027 elections.

Have you felt the hike more in transport or food prices? Let me know in the comments.

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